I have already noted that in 2015, Russia came out on the 1st place in the world for the production of combat aircraft - see the details here :. Let's now see how this is the case with our "probable partners" - in states and Europe, data on them for 2014 here:

The most massive in the serial pr-ve last year in the West became the F-35, and the first aircraft was collected outside the United States - in Italy

We look the data:

USA

F-15 - 15 15 - 8 8 - 14 14 - 14 14 - 12 12

F-16 - 22 22 - 37 37 - 13 13 - 17 17 - 11 11

F-18 49 - 49 48 - 48 48 - 48 44 - 44 35 - 35

F-22 13 - 13 8 - 8 - - - - - - - - -

F-35 8 - 8 28 2 30 32 3 35 34 2 36 42 3 45

Total: 70 37 107 84 47 131 80 30 110 78 33 111 77 26 103

You can also add a few AC-130J and the BPS R-8 issued for yourself and India and note that F-35 is still not a completely combat fighter.
I also note that at present the United States does not produce UBS - a competition for new cars only unfolds ...

The French "Rafal" made his way to the external market - orders from Egypt and Qatar were received

EUROPE: 2011 year 2012 2013 year 2014 year 2015

"for yourself" exports of just "to itself" exporting just "to itself" exports of just "to yourself" exports of just "to yourself" exports total

"Gripen" - 12 12 - 6 6 - 6 6 - - - - - -

"Rafal" 11 - 11 11 - 11 11 - 11 11 - 11 5 6 11

"Typhoon" 38 10 48 40 - 40 54 10 64 28 12 40 28 12 40

Total: 49 22 71 51 6 57 65 16 81 39 12 51 33 18 51

The table was again not included in UBS - MV.339, MV.346 (in Italy) and "Hawk" (in Britain, incl. Aircraft-kits for India) - about two dozen per year - I do not have accurate data.
It is worth expecting an increase in the release of "Rafalee" - due to the emergence of export orders - the first aircraft for Egypt were taken and a little redone from those intended for the French Air Force.
In 2018, it is already a new generation to resume the pr-in "Gripens".

There are no accurate data on China, but it can be assumed that there for a year released, yet, less than 100 combat aircraft.
Now in serial pr-ves are:
- Heavy bombers H-6K (the development of Tu-16) - is available for several sizes per year
- The fighter "5th generation" J-20 - Melk-sector pr-in - several. units
- Options SU-27 / 30/33 - J-11 / 15/16 - Install exactly volumes of the pr-va is impossible - several. dozens per year
- J-10 fighter (created on the basis of Israel closed project "LAVI" - similar to the previous one ...
- Fighter-bomber / front-line bomber JH-7
- JF-17 fighter (deep modernization MiG-21) - aircraft-kits for Pakistan - 16 units, it should grow to 25 per year
- UBS JL-8 / K-8 - is actively supplied for export, incl. Aircraft and sets for assembly in Pakistan
- UBS JL-9 (deep modernization of the MiG-21U) - Melkaria Prospect
- UBS L-15 (supersonic on the basis of Yak-130) - Mellenic pr-in
- BPS Y-8Q - BPS (on the basis of the local copies of the An-12) - several. units per year

Moreover:
South. Korea produces and quite successfully sells its UBS / light fighter F / T-50 - about a dozen per year
India "extracts" his "Tedjas" and UBS "Sitara" - no more than one and a half dozen per year (in addition to the assembly of the Su-30 and UBS "Hawk")
about Pakistan I mentioned in the Chinese section
Iran is collecting something there by type F-5 - a few pieces per year from all sorts of configuration
Brazil produces and Pts. Successfully sells the turboprop stormsman "Super Tukano" - a dozen 2 per year (in addition, the shock options have similar Korean KT-1, American AT-802 and T-6 - can be bombable with An-26, for example ...)
Japan collected for 2-3 BPS R-1

00:21 - REGNUM. Revival of the military aviation industry

2014 became for Air force Russia is a record - pilots received 108 different aircraft at their disposal. In 2015, deliveries should remain approximately at the same level or slightly. In total, taking into account exports, not less than 124 military aircraft were built. The number of helicopters released is growing slower, in 2013 and 2014 produced by about 300 helicopters. As for the civilian aircraft construction, here the results are noticeably more modest - 43 cars were released, from which 38 aircraft were delivered to customers, and the rest will be delivered in 2015.

Is there a lot or a little? To do this, it is necessary to dwell on each category of aviation products.

Military aircraft construction

In 2014, the Air Force of the Russian Federation received 24 Multifunctional Su-35S fighters, 21 Multifunctional Su-30cm fighter, 8 Su-30m2 fighters, 18 front-line bombers Su-34, 10 deck fighters MiG-29k / cube, 20 Educational and combat aircraft Yak-130 , Observation plane Tu-214on, four passenger aircraft An-148-100E, two cargo-passenger aircraft An-140-100. All listed aircraft meet modern requirements, many of them (especially Su-30) are of great success abroad. As already mentioned - the total number of military aircraft produced amounted to at least 124 pieces (the number of machines supplied abroad failed to determine exactly, so the amount can be more - to 150). Compare this figure with the number of combat aircraft manufactured in the 1980s, when the airflow was really strong. From 1983 to 1990, every year 175 aircraft were produced, of which 110 military. That is, the result achieved in 2014 fully corresponds to the Soviet pace of production, and this is despite the fact that every new model of the aircraft (especially military) is more expensive than the previous one and requires more time to build.

And another interesting point - today the Russian Federation began to take the first place in the world for the production of combat aircraft, overtaking both China (using Russian engines on its aircraft) and the United States (no more than 100 aircraft for the 2014). The United States will fail, which is not so smooth, as I would like to develop a fighter of the 5th generation F-35. According to preliminary information, over the next 5 years, the United States will produce 569 aircraft - 113 per year, along with export machines.

As for the prospects of the Russian Federation, after two years, fighters of the 5th generation of Pak Fa will go into mass production. Within the framework of the state program of weapons for 2011-2020, the pace of airplanes should remain at about the same level as in 2014. Work has begun on the creation of a promising strategic bomber Pak and the Pak's military transport aircraft.

Another major direction of development of the Air Force is the modernization of the available airfield. Already in 2015, 5 modernized strategic bombers of Tu-160 and 9 Tu-22m3m will be obtained. These aircraft can now carry high-precision non-nuclear winged and anti-religious missiles. By 2020, as part of the Air Force of the Russian Federation should be at least 700 modernized aircraft (while maintaining a taking pace).

Civil Engineering

There are not so rosy things here. The main passenger aircraft of domestic production is the near-hygunny sukhoi superjet 100. It was released in the amount of 34 pieces. With stretch K. civil aviation can also be attributed transport aircraftpurchased by power departments - another 9 AN-148, An-140, Il-76 and Tu-214. Total 43 cars. In the 1980s, 60-70 civilian aircraft were produced every year in the USSR. But then there was a release of wide-body aircraft, the same IL-86/96. Now the model range is limited only by one single SSJ-100, whose prospects are not entirely clear in the market. The development of MS-21 is a medium-haul aircraft from the UAC. There was information on the possible development of a co-division of a wide-body aircraft with China. In any case, before Europeans and Americans, we are still very far away - the world market is still almost completely divided between two giants - Airbus and Boeing. In 2013, the first staged 626 aircraft, and the second 648. The annual release of the aircraft of our UAC is only 6.8% of the release of Airbus.

Helicopters

Right back to the positive. In 2014, the holding "Helicopters of Russia" was released a little more than 300 cars, of which more than 100 are in the framework of the state defense order. In the USSR of the 80s, the production of helicopters was approximately 380 pieces per year - the figure is greater, but not drastically, especially considering the decrease in the country itself and the release of more expensive and modern cars. In addition, there is a release of a certain number of revolt cars outside the "helicopters of Russia" - even up to 50 helicopters per year. In world sales, the "helicopters of Russia" accounted for 14%. The linear of the legendary Mi-8/17 is especially popular, which even the Pentagon for the Army of Afghanistan is still purchased. The release of assault helicopters Ka-52, Mi-28 and Mi-35 is more than 70 pieces per year - first place in the world.

conclusions

1. We are seeing the revival of the military aviation industry of the Russian Federation. Not only have the Soviet rates of production have been achieved, even the US remained behind.

2. Civilian aircraft, though it began to revive (a few years ago there was no release and 20 aircraft per year), but still on a global scale is negligible. The model range is extremely zadu and does not satisfy the needs of the Russian Federation. The main prospect of development is cooperation with the PRC, which will allow to get a huge Asian market.

3. The helicopters of success is very good. It should be noted that even in the worst years, the release of helicopters rarely fell below 100 pieces per year. The Mi-8/17 line has always been popular abroad.

The aviation industry as the industry was formed at the beginning of the twentieth century. By 1910-12, in many countries there were several enterprises engaged in the production of aircraft. Interest in the industry arose during the world warrior, in particular, the Second World War, when the domination in the air became one of the defining factors in a particular battle. After 1945, the industry continued intensive growth, during this period, paying more attention to civil aviation. By the end of the 80s, the aviation industry approached the modern sample and then almost did not change its appearance. Currently, several countries of the aviation industry leaders who hold their position have been formed in this sector.

Modern leaders - what are their features

Currently, world leadership in the aviation industry belongs to several states, among them: USA, Russia, Es and Brazil. These countries have the greatest number Factories and factories operating in this industry. Some companies within the state can afford to produce single details, but they will ultimately enter large enterprises that form the basis of national aircraft enterprises.

The peculiarities of leading companies in countries of the leaders of the aviation industry is the fact that they all cooperate with the state. If we are talking about civil aviation, then this is the maintenance of large carriers, national flights, if the military is to ensure the needs of the Armed Forces.

Leading Civil Aviation Industry Companies

Civil aircraft - the most expensive group in which only large enterprises with a narrow specialization of a national or international level come out.

Two large corporations lead in civilian aircraft enterprise:

• Boeing (American company);
• Airbus (Joint EU Corporation);
• Joint Aviation Corporation of Russia.

In other countries, there are no similar applications. The key feature of these companies is the dispersal of production throughout the country or several countries (EU). Such an approach allows you to sharpen the production at one plant for the output of one part, raise the factory to resources and therefore minimize production costs. In addition, these companies were able to appear only thanks to the merger of giants. So, for example, in the UA, there are several large enterprises "Su", "MiG", "Il", "Tu", "Yak", focused on general production.

Other large companies producing aviation in the world are: "Lockhid-Martin", Northrop-Grumman, United Tenolodzhiz, "Trestron" (USA).

In the near future, China is most likely to come in the near future, but today its production has not yet can compete with global giants.

Military aviation

In the military sector, the leaders of the aviation industry look different. The following stamps came to this category:

• Su (in the production of Russia);
• MiG (Russia);
• Panavia Tornado (Germany);
• Euro Faiter Typhoon (manufactured by the European Union);
• Boeing (United States United States).

In this sector, it is difficult to determine the leadership between the brands, since companies that produce such a technique reluctantly advertise their own sales. However, it can be said with confidence that in this sector Troika leaders remain unchanged: the USA, the European Union and Russia. Interesting developments in this industry also belong to Israel, Canada China and some other countries, but they are produced in a much more modest volume.

In front of the Russian manufacturers of aircraft and helicopters today, new tasks arose. They have to be more active in the world market, faster introducing new technologies and, if necessary, exchange qualified personnel.

These and other steps are contained in the project of an updated aviation industry strategy until 2030. In addition, the document includes the gradual privatization of the part of state-owned companies. "We are for ensuring that private capital actively involved in the industry," the Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov explained.

Benefits are not canceled

The existing state support measures will continue for the participants of the industry. "We will stimulate our airlines to acquire the park aircraft Russian production, "said Denis Manturov.

According to him, a new generation of suppliers, working according to the most stringent standards, in demand not only in the internal, but also in the global market should appear. "Aviation Industry Corporations are already working in this direction," the minister clarified.

As before, the rate of the state does on aviation science and ensuring the technological sovereignty of the country. "As a result, we expect to build an economically stable, globally competitive industry embedded in the international division of labor," Manturov concluded.

Supplier small yes delete

The new generation of suppliers, including small and medium business, will work not only at the aviation industry, but also on the adjacent industries - automotive, space, shipbuilding, transport engineering and others.

Today, all the largest manufacturers of aircraft and helicopters in the world work with many large and small component manufacturers, concentrating efforts to develop a better product, as assembly and flawless after-sales service.

In Russia, the outdated industrial model of the "full cycle enterprises" is used - from casting to the assembly of final products. In the modern world of such enterprises almost left - unprofitable.

A wide cooperation and division of labor is welcome in the world, the authors of the document state. According to Oleg Panteleeva, the airport executive director of the Agency, the strategy directly indicates the key features of "home aircraft" and offers ways to solve them in line with the trends of the world aircraft. This means that the emphasis must be done on the independent development of so-called critical technologies that provide competitiveness, on inclusion in international cooperation and division of labor.

Digital factory

The most acute problem for Russian airflowers is the close domestic market and the closeness of many foreign markets.

"The United Aircraft Building Corporation (" OAK ") plans to produce about 35 SSJ100 aircraft per year in the near future. Features allow you to double the release and ensure the profitability of production at the expense of business scale. But inside the country, airplanes are not required in such quantities. Our passengers do not earn so much. And not so often fly like Europeans or Americans, "Oleg Panteleev explained to the Russian newspaper. That is why Russian aircraft producers are extremely important to gain access to the international market.

"A breakthrough for Asian markets can ensure the implementation of the joint Russian-Chinese project of the wide-body far-haul aircraft (SFFMS)," Oleg Panteleev believes.

The development of military aircraft exports will contribute to the successful combat use of shock aircraft in Syria.

"It is important to understand what will be in demand in other countries. We make a bet on new aircraft samples. This is SSJ100, MS21, Ka62, M38, Ansat," explained in the ministry.

Recall, SSJ100 is a regional passenger aircraft created in close international cooperation, "Ansyat" - a modern helicopter for widespread applications in civil and special purposes. Ka62 and M38 - Multipurpose helicopters, MS21 - near-submissive aircraft.

There are now more than 250 industrial enterprises and over 400 thousand employees now operate in aircraft

In the updated airport strategy, the emphasis is placed on the enhanced scientific and technical development of the industry. Despite the implementation of promising projects recent yearsIn Russia, the backlog of the industry leaders has accumulated, especially in the civil segment. Many key technologies in the Russian airflow have been developed back in the 1980s. And now in the global market, the requirements for the future aircraft related to digital technologies and innovations.

For example, Airbus introduces a digital factory into production - innovation that will increase productivity, reduce logistics and energy costs by 30%. Boeing and Airbus are starting to use the 3D printing method that increases the strength of the products five times and 90 percent reduction in raw materials. It is important and the development of after-sales service: with the help of new developments in the world, the rates of service provision are increasing.

Projects that will break the situation can be MS21 and the Russian-Chinese Waterflock of the Sponds, calculated in the Ministry of Industry.

We fly to the alliance

What ways of embedding in the world aviaprom are offered? In addition to exporting measures of state support, it is close cooperation with countries developing their own airflow.

"For example, China does not have sufficient experience in the design of civil wide-body Sun and aircraft engines. India has no own developments on the fifth generation fighter, civil regional, narrow- and wide-body aircraft. The Russian aviation industry has competencies and technologies in these areas and can be a reliable partner for these countries, "explained in the Ministry of Industry.

In addition, international alliances plan to build under the "competence in exchange" scheme (for example, China and India). Moreover, the possibility of creating joint ventures with developing countries for the development, production and promotion of aircraft is considered.

In projects with international participation with high-tech countries, Russia is aimed at cooperation with France, Germany, USA, Great Britain, Japan. "The creation of conditions for international cooperation will be achieved among the number of political support from the state, in particular, at the level of intergovernmental agreements," the strategy says.

In procurement of foreign aircraft, the participants of the industry together with the state will look for opportunities on the oncoming requirements for potential partners - include domestic companies in the international chains of suppliers, localize the production of components in Russia, carry out joint scientific and development work.

A separate topic is the support of the domestic market of civilian aircraft. To the question of "RG", which incentives can be able to calculate airlines that update their park at the expense of domestic civil liners SSJ100 and MC21, they reported that they will create special conditionsIn which the Russian aircraft will be competitive in operation.

The problem of the availability of remote areas of Russia without equipped aerodrome infrastructure will be solved including with the help of airplanes made on samples of military transport aircraft. Given the low seriality of such aircraft, the state partially divides costs with air carriers for their operation.

Personnel cycle

Another strategic task is to create conditions so that scientific centers act independent experts in assessing constructive decisions and certification.

For the first time in Russia, the Institute of Corporation General Designers will appear. It is created to coordinate all actions in the field of creation. military equipmentAs well as for cooperation of various design bureaus. The main goal is to push the "flow of technologies" from the military sphere in civil and back. In general, exclude duplication of design developments.

The strategy mentions the term "flow" personnel. He will be able to move within the industry, depending on the loading of the enterprise, the availability of vacancies and ambitions on their own career growth of employees, explained in the ministry.

"Qualified workers a lot, but they are distributed point and sediments compared to other countries. For airflow and related industries, it is important that people are willing to move for an interesting and high-paying work on plants that have a deficit in frames, ready to receive new knowledge, sharing those The developments that have already helped restore the industrial complex of one or another region, "clarified in the department.

Consider a migration option in the ministry and in case of closing unprofitable enterprises in monogors. Programs, in addition to advanced training and retraining, also provide for helping to solve housing issues.

At the same time, market experts note that the strategy covers too much - until 2030. The dynamics of the global development of the industry is such that the strategy will have to update much earlier.

All privately

The new industry strategy includes the gradual privatization of the part of the state-owned companies. The airflow is now largely depends on state subsidies. The lack of extrabudgetary sources of financing did not allow to fulfill the fulfillment of the aircraft-2015 strategy. Therefore, in perspective, the rate on additional private capital and the privatization of state-owned companies.

2.6 trillion rubles will be the total airport revenue by 2030, if the strategy tasks are fulfilled

"In the world, different approaches to the management of the industry. The largest American and Canadian aircraft manufacturers are ruled by private capital, the state is a shareholder in Europe. Russia can choose an intermediate flexible scheme," Oleg Panteleev approves the privatization.

The Ministry of Industry clarify that privatization is one of the possible steps to change the industrial model. It is assembled to privatize the so-called non-basic for manufacturers of aircraft and helicopters of the sphere, which can accounterably up to 60 percent of all labor costs and investments.

Infographics: "RG" / Anton Obinders / Elena Berezina

In the Russian airflow, the largest reform begins since 2006, when a combined aircraft enterprise (UAC) was created. Now we are talking about the association of the UAC, the Corporation "Irkut" and the company " Civil aircraft Dry "into a single structure that will be engaged in all civilian UAC programs. It will become the head division of the entire corporation.

This means that the UAC considers the civil aircraft with the key direction. On the one hand, in the context of the reduction of the state defense, the inevitability of which has repeatedly declared at the highest level, the aircraft manufacturers do not have to choose. On the other hand, if the authority of Russia in the field of military aviation is not disputed by anyone, then our country is in the category of outsiders in the civil aircraft market.

What is quite fair, given that over the past year, only 30 civil aircraft produced in Russia. For comparison - market leaders, in and airbus, released 748 and 577 aircraft, respectively.

There is a logical question - what can OAK count on the current situation?

Big Pie.

According to the forecast that the United Aircraft Corporation introduced the MAKS-2017 on the July Aviationon, the global demand for new passenger planes With a capacity of more than 30 chairs in the next twenty years will be in 41800 aircraft with a total cost without a small 6 trillion dollars.

At the same time, the highest demand for airlines will be used by narrow-sieves airplanes with a capacity of 120 and more chairs, which will have 63% of the total number of new aircraft. For this segment, the UAC is developing the MC-21 program.

The new reactive capacity of 61-120 seats up to 2036 will be sold about 4.6 thousand units (11% of the total). This segment in the UAC is represented by the SSJ 100 Superjet Program.

The demand for turboprop aircraft capacity from 30 seats will be about 2.3 thousand units. In this segment, the UAC develops the IL-114 program.
The total demand for wide-body machines will be 7450 aircraft. For this segment of the UAC, together with the Chinese Civil Aviation Corporation, SOMAS is planning to develop and release a new generation wide-body long-haul aircraft. This year, a joint venture was opened in Shanghai, which will manage the program.

That is, theoretically, Russian aircraft industry has something to answer the market requests. In practice, everything is more complicated.

Three gray horse

Start with the fact that today the market is really present only "dry superjet". This is the first domestic aircraft designed after the quarterweight break. Unfortunately, the hopes associated with this project were justified partially.

The pilots who were able to pilot the "Superjet" are evaluated the aircraft is very high - no worse than Airbus A-320 (with better efficiency) and definitely better than Brazilian Embraer. At the same time, they recognize the presence of a plurality of small faults that do not affect the safety of flight. The main claim of professionals is associated with very poor service support, which is why aircraft are idle for a long time without spare parts.

Passengers have more complaints - there is a bad noise and vibration insulation ("sitting in place 7f by the engine and received free vibrator massage - very strong noise and vibration"), as well as small and low portholes.

Most often, Russians compare SSJ 100 with UAZ Patriot car: good transport For passengers without any complaints. It is noteworthy that Mexican pilots (Mexican company Interjet acquired 30 SSJ 100) called the "Superjet" tank.

It is clear that with such characteristics to conquer the global market is not easy. As a result, the project remains chronically unprofitable. To reach the profitability of the OAK, it is necessary to sell at least 300 aircraft, but still implemented three times. The maximum annual release of SSJ 100 was achieved in 2014 - 35 aircraft were released. In 2015-2016, due to the change in the macroeconomic situation, sales plans were adjusted to 17 and 18 units, respectively.

For comparison, Brazilian Embraer has released 225 aircraft over the past year: 117 business jets and 108 regional aircraft - Supergerta competitors. It is not surprising that recently the President of Oak Yuri Slyusar declared a refusal of large volumes of production SSJ: the corporation plans to issue 30-40 "Superjets" per year, but not going to "scale this project to large volumes."

Now the main hope of OAK was the MS-21 project. This is the plane, according to the characteristics close to today's segment leader - Canadian Bombardier CS300. Like the Canadian aircraft, the Russian is built according to the most modern technologies using composite materials and with the same Pratt & Whitney engines (though, in perspective on MS-21, it is planned to establish a domestic engine PD-14). Economy engines and lightweight housing allow Bombardier CS300 and MS-21 to save up to 20% of the fuel compared to the Boeing and Airbus aircraft of this class. At the same time, MS-21 workspace Bombardier CS300 - in it 176 passenger seats (Canadian - 130), which makes it use more profitable.

IL-114 is a plane from the past: he made the first flight back in 1999 and until 2012 was produced at the Tashkent Aviation Production Association. V. P. Chkalova. Ten IL-114 was released with Pratt & Whitney Canada engines. Now these aircraft are included in the park Uzbekistan Airways.
The United Aircraft Corporation plans to resume the production of IL-114 with Russian TV7-117Ti engines at the plant in Lukhovitsi, which will produce 12-18 aircraft per year. The total volume of release, including civil and special versions, can be 100 cars. The first flight updated IL-114 must be made in 2018.

Aeroflot against the Ministry of Industry

The main problem that the UA should decide is not connected with the development or production of new aircraft, but with their sales. It is already clear that the "Superjet" will not reach the production indicator of 300 aircraft required for the payback of the project. MS-21 with current volumes of investment will pay off after selling 200 aircraft. Already produced IL-114 has the greatest chances to pay off - if the planned 100 aircraft will be released and sold, the project can be considered commercially successful.

Meanwhile, according to Boeing, the needs of the Russian market for the foreseeable perspective will be the maximum of 40 passenger aircraft of all types per year. It is unlikely that MS-21, SSJ-100 and IL-114 will take all this volume. Although the government makes everything possible and impossible for this. In particular, the Ministry of Industry and Commission proposed to cancel the importance of importing foreign aircraft that "establishes the customs and tariff protection of the domestic market in the interests of Russian aircraft - SSJ 100 extended version and MS-21-300."

Aeroflot actively acted against this innovation, in the park of which in 2018 should come 31 (!) Foreign aircraft. The company sent a letter addressed to First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, in which it is noted that in the case of suspension of preferential regime, additional costs for the import of aircraft will exceed 25 billion rubles. As a result, Aeroflot will have to reduce the plan for the procurement of aircraft "both foreign and Russian production", which will not allow expanding route network, "including regional and socially significant routes."

Photo: Portal Moscow 24 / Lydia Shronicine

Unreal export

If even Home russian airline It does not burn with the desire to refuse import of aircraft for the sake of Supergerta and MS-21 support, what to talk about foreigners. Moreover, foreign buyers of new Russian aircraft will have to take into account a bunch of additional risks.

First, the Irkut Corporation is a manufacturer of MS-21 - known in the world as a manufacturer of fighters. The first civilian plane released by the corporation, the airline will meet with great care. This purchase can be guided only when the operating experience of MS-21 in Aeroflote (which will have to acquire new aircraft in a voluntary and forced order).

Secondly, any new aircraft requires finishing and refinement, the period of which is on average about 15 years. And no serious airline will be ordered by large batch of aircraft that have not passed this period. But even after that, new manufacturers, such as Irkut, can only expect orders for small carriers that do not have its own maintenance and repair aircraft. Such companies are less attached to the market leaders.

Thirdly, in 2018, the Chinese C919, which, relying on the massive support of his government, can be a serious competitor to all global manufacturers, to the middle-high aircraft market.

Thus, at a minimum in the next 15-20 years, the Russian aircraft industry will be a planned and unprofitable industry living largely on budget subsidies. Under these conditions, the likelihood that the Ministry of Finance will prolobate the next optimization of the aircraft, after which only an export-attractive military segment will remain from the industry.